DATA JOURNALISM · JULY 2026

The 15 Most Dangerous Towns on Long Island

By Dr. Dao Yuan Han, PhD Mathematics · Data Editor & Lead Analyst · Last computed July 19, 2026 at 4:36 PM

Nassau and Suffolk County towns ranked by a composite safety score anchored on official New York State crime data: 80% is the five-year DCJS Index Crime rate per 1,000 residents (2019–2023, the same agency submissions the FBI publishes in Crime in the U.S.), 20% is a rolling 90-day signal from our continuously updated incident pipeline. The anchor keeps the ranking honest against news-cycle noise; the recent layer keeps it current. Read the Methodology and the per-town context notes before drawing relocation conclusions — several towns' rates are driven by malls and commuter corridors, not residential streets.

627 incidents analyzed 147 crime reports 109 towns surveyed 90-day rolling window

The Spread, at a Glance

Composite score by town — each bar splits into its DCJS five-year baseline contribution (0.80 weight) and the rolling 90-day recent-signal contribution (0.20 weight). The #1 town sets the scale. 2 of the top 15 are in Nassau County, 13 in Suffolk.

1 Montauk S 16.1
2 Hempstead N 15.7
3 Riverhead S 13.6
4 Sag Harbor S 13.2
5 Amityville S 12.5
6 Shelter Island S 12.4
7 Mastic S 12.0
8 Greenlawn S 11.6
9 Mastic Beach S 11.4
10 Deer Park S 11.3
11 Mount Sinai S 11.2
12 Freeport N 11.0
13 Bayport S 10.9
14 Centereach S 10.8
15 Shirley S 10.8

Bar length ∝ composite score. Full per-town figures, source confidence, and category breakdowns in the ranking below.

The Top 15 by Incident Concentration

Sorted descending by composite incident score per 1,000 residents (methodology). Click any town for the full local incident history.

  1. #1

    Montauk

    Suffolk County · Population 3,300 · Composite 16.097
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 28.48
    8 recent reports 2 crime-classified 1 Arrests 1 Impaired Driving

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  2. #2

    Hempstead

    Nassau County · Population 55,247 · Composite 15.658
    DCJS Index Crime: 17.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 8.29
    82 recent reports 8 crime-classified 2 Impaired Driving 2 Drug Crime 4 Homicide

    Hempstead Village PD; 2023 figure 15.81/1k per DCJS, 5-yr avg slightly higher due to 2019-2021 levels.

  3. #3

    Riverhead

    Suffolk County · Population 33,422 · Composite 13.607
    DCJS Index Crime: 16.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 2.04
    4 recent reports 2 crime-classified 1 Impaired Driving 1 Homicide

    Riverhead Town PD; 2023 figure 17.92/1k per DCJS, one of highest LI rates due to Tanger Outlets + downtown area mixing very high foot traffic with relatively low residential population.

  4. #4

    Sag Harbor

    Suffolk County · Population 2,300 · Composite 13.183
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 13.91
    3 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Impaired Driving

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  5. #5

    Amityville

    Suffolk County · Population 9,500 · Composite 12.526
    DCJS Index Crime: 15.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 0.63
    2 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Arrests

    Amityville Village PD; consistently in top 5 highest LI village rates.

  6. #6

    Shelter Island

    Suffolk County · Population 2,400 · Composite 12.4
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 10.00
    2 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Impaired Driving

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  7. #7

    Mastic

    Suffolk County · Population 16,000 · Composite 12
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 8.00
    8 recent reports 5 crime-classified 4 Assault & Stabbings 1 Shootings

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  8. #8

    Greenlawn

    Suffolk County · Population 14,000 · Composite 11.6
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 6.00
    5 recent reports 2 crime-classified 1 Shootings 1 Homicide

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  9. #9

    Mastic Beach

    Suffolk County · Population 13,000 · Composite 11.354
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 4.77
    4 recent reports 3 crime-classified 1 Shootings 1 Sex Crimes 1 Impaired Driving

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  10. #10

    Deer Park

    Suffolk County · Population 28,000 · Composite 11.314
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 4.57
    11 recent reports 2 crime-classified 2 Homicide

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  11. #11

    Mount Sinai

    Suffolk County · Population 12,000 · Composite 11.2
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 4.00
    2 recent reports 2 crime-classified 1 Homicide 1 Fraud & Scams

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  12. #12

    Freeport

    Nassau County · Population 43,713 · Composite 11.047
    DCJS Index Crime: 13.5/1,000 measured 90-day signal: 1.24
    7 recent reports 3 crime-classified 2 Drug Crime 1 Arrests

    Freeport Village PD; 2023 figure 11.61/1k per DCJS, 5-yr avg higher due to early-window levels.

  13. #13

    Bayport

    Suffolk County · Population 9,000 · Composite 10.889
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 2.44
    5 recent reports 1 crime-classified 1 Arrests

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  14. #14

    Centereach

    Suffolk County · Population 31,000 · Composite 10.839
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 2.19
    8 recent reports 7 crime-classified 6 Impaired Driving 1 Arrests

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

  15. #15

    Shirley

    Suffolk County · Population 28,000 · Composite 10.8
    DCJS Index Crime: 13/1,000 county avg 90-day signal: 2.00
    8 recent reports 2 crime-classified 2 Arrests

    No municipal-level DCJS data available; using county average of 13 per 1,000.

Methodology

composite = 0.80 × DCJS Index Crime rate (5-yr avg, per 1,000) + 0.20 × 90-day weighted incident signal

The anchor is the New York Division of Criminal Justice Services Index Crime statistics — 2019–2023 average rate per 1,000 residents from official UCR submissions by Nassau County PD, Suffolk County PD, and each incorporated village PD. Index Crime covers the 7 FBI Part I offenses (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft). For hamlets policed by NCPD/SCPD rather than a village PD, rates are inferred from precinct-level data and badged precinct-scaled on the card. The 20% recent layer weights our continuously enriched incident pipeline by category severity (homicide ×10 … DWI ×2); the full weight table, scaling constants, and limitations are published in the paired Safest Towns methodology, and the scorer itself ships in our repo (town-safety-score.ts) — the formula above is reproducible, not editorial vibes.

This report inverts the Safest Towns ranking and uses a lower data-quality floor (population ≥ 1,000, no minimum incident count) because the "most dangerous" question is meaningful even for small communities with elevated rates — whereas the "safest" question would over-reward under-surveyed towns.

What this report IS: the official multi-year crime-rate ranking, kept current by a live incident layer — useful for relocation screening, school-visit prioritization, and "what's been happening this quarter" questions.

What this report IS NOT:

  • NOT a verdict on long-term safety trends.
  • NOT comparable to the FBI Uniform Crime Reports (which use authoritative methodology but lag 12-18 months).
  • NOT a substitute for the NY Division of Criminal Justice Services official statistics.
  • NOT a recommendation against any town. Many towns appearing in this report have specific causal factors (a busy commuter parkway, a major retail corridor, a hospital catchment zone) that drive reported-incident counts without reflecting day-to-day resident experience.

For relocation decisions, use this report as ONE input alongside official statistics, school records, personal visits, and local-realtor counsel.

Frequently Asked Questions

What's the most dangerous town on Long Island?

Based on the 5-year NY DCJS Index Crime baseline (2019-2023) blended with current 90-day activity, Montauk (Suffolk County, pop. 3,300) ranks #1 most-dangerous with a composite score of 16.097 — anchored on a DCJS Index Crime rate of 13 per 1,000 residents. Hempstead Village, Riverhead Town, Freeport Village, and Amityville Village consistently appear in the top 5 of every published DCJS year. Our ranking reflects that structural truth, not just news-cycle noise.

How do you calculate "most dangerous"?

Composite score = 0.80 × NY DCJS Index Crime baseline + 0.20 × current 90-day signal. The baseline is the 5-year average (2019-2023) Index Crime rate per 1,000 residents from official DCJS UCR submissions by Nassau County PD, Suffolk County PD, and incorporated village PDs (Hempstead, Freeport, Garden City, Amityville, Patchogue, Riverhead, etc.). Index Crime covers the 7 FBI Part I offenses: murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft. Hamlet rates inferred from precinct-level data (for areas covered by NCPD or SCPD rather than a village PD) are clearly flagged in each town card.

Should I make a relocation decision based on this report?

Use this as a screening tool, not a final answer. The DCJS Index Crime data we anchor on IS the multi-year official truth (same source the FBI publishes in Crime in the U.S.), so the ranking direction is correct. But individual blocks within a town vary widely — Hempstead Village's rate is dominated by a few hot blocks near the bus terminal; the rest of the village is quieter. Always cross-reference with school-district safety records, a personal visit at different times of day, and the most recent annual DCJS report at criminaljustice.ny.gov.

Why does Garden City show such a high rate?

Roosevelt Field Mall. The mall is inside Garden City Village PD's jurisdiction, and its retail larceny incidents (shoplifting from Macy's, Bloomingdale's, Apple, etc.) count toward the village's Index Crime total. Residential crime in Garden City is much lower than the headline rate suggests. Same pattern shows up in Riverhead (Tanger Outlets), Mineola (downtown commercial), and Long Beach (boardwalk + beach summer larceny). When evaluating a town for residential safety, look at the per-category breakdown in each town card — if 70%+ is larceny, the headline rate is being inflated by commercial activity, not residential danger.

How is this different from a Niche.com or similar list?

Niche and similar consumer-facing ranking sites blend crime data with school quality, cost of living, walkability, etc. into a single "best places" score — useful as a starting point but you can't isolate the safety signal. We publish only the safety dimension, anchored on the official DCJS Index Crime data, with a transparent formula and reproducible methodology. If a publication ranks Manhasset and Brentwood at similar safety levels, ours doesn't — because DCJS doesn't.

How often does this ranking update?

Every 2-4 hours via the longislandtraffic.com autopilot rebuild cycle. The 90-day recent-signal layer rolls forward continuously; the DCJS baseline updates annually when the new state report drops (typically June for the prior calendar year). When we update the baseline, the file at src/data/long-island-crime-baseline.ts in our repo is the single source of truth and the change is logged in our git history.